Toca Madera ran well on his Newmarket reappearance two weeks ago, all the more so given he was pulling far too hard in the opening furlong, and he should run well under suitable conditions. He kept finishing behind Shagraan (second choice) last year though and Mick Appleby's topweight, who didn't miss a dance last summer and progressed steadily, appeals as the type to make up into a Pattern-race performer this year. He is returning from a break though and perhaps HOLKHAM BAY, who was also progressive last year, may have his measure now he has a run under his belt.[Paul Smith]